As we all know, the chip industry has a cycle, and according to the historical experience value, usually, a chip cycle is 3-5 years, and the market will be 1-2 quarters ahead of the fundamentals. Why do cycles occur? First of all, the market demand increases, the supply exceeds the supply, the price goes up, then the fabs increase production, increase capacity, and the chip industry continues to rise, and this is the upcycle. As capacity grows, there is a problem, which is that supply slowly exceeds demand, so inventories are high, prices fall, and eventually, there are fewer fabs, and you enter a downward cycle. Until after the production cut, the market supply and demand relationship are balanced, slowly short of supply, then the chip price began to rise, into the upward cycle. Throughout the decades of chip history, the industry has been up - down - up - down... Periodic fluctuations. So the question arises, what stage is the chip industry currently in? We all know tha
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